Our new Deepseek-based AI says "Chiefs vs Eagles? ... How Predictable"

Super Bowl forecasts from our new Deepseek-based AI trained to be better at forecasting

Share this post

Nobody can predict the future however at Lightning arrester Labs we are training AI to give it its best shot. With as much as date news and a little but lively 14 Billion criterion model, our AI is boldly forecasting the unforeseeable. Join us as we try to address mankind's most difficult concerns.

Super Bowl Sunday is almost upon us and, simply as two years earlier, we have the Chiefs against the Eagles. The spread presently sits at Chiefs -1.5 with an over-under of 48.5. While the stats are well studied, there remain numerous pressing questions that are less simple to select. Our business, Lightning Rod Labs, has actually been mining concerns from locations like polymarket.com and training a big language model to be much better at forecasting the future (and have seen some intriguing enhancements - term paper incoming). Today we turned its cold, determining eye at the Super Bowl to see if it can provide us some insight into the finer points of what we can expect this Sunday.

For more updates from the AI world subscribe to my newsletter!

Background

Our AI is a 14 billion criterion design which is really on the smaller side. (Some price quotes suggest ChatGPT has 1.8 TRILLION criteria and trained utilizing 8000 H100 GPUs. We used 8.) Additionally, its knowledge cutoff is from many months ago so we have developed an "agentic pipeline" to do news retrieval, summarization, and ranking. With each question we provide the news and watch as the AI reasons its way through unknown area to make its finest prediction possible.

And Now ... The Important Questions

We posed the following concerns to our AI and evaluated its response. While we have actually seen prediction enhancements from our training, utilize these price quotes for prop wagering at your own hazard.

Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 5% possibility

Therefore it appears this Sunday will not be a romantic one. Our AI thinks Taylor and Travis' relationship is rock strong, however a little too private for a post-Super Bowl proposition. Plus got ta aspect in if the Chiefs lose. That would be an uncomfortable proposition ...

First, I'll look at the essential points from the short articles. Travis has actually remained in a relationship with Taylor because 2023. He's a huge football star, and she's been supportive of his profession, attending his video games. They appear to have a strong, public relationship, and Taylor has even welcomed her loved ones to the Super Bowl, revealing her commitment.

Some fans are excited, while others, especially Swifties, are a bit uncertain, particularly provided remarks Travis made about Donald Trump attending the Super Bowl. That has caused some Swifties to question how appropriate Travis is for Taylor. However, systemcheck-wiki.de the couple appears to be keeping their relationship personal and not attending to the speculation straight.

I believe the essential points are the speculation and his evasive responses. While he's plainly in a relationship and the Super Bowl is an essential event, the chances and his reactions suggest it's more of a possibility instead of a certainty. I 'd estimate a low possibility, perhaps around 5%, considering all factors.

Will the Eagles do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the incredibly bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 79% opportunity

No Jason Kelce hasn't stopped the Eagles from utilizing their signature "tush-push" relocation, now its just a various front-tush being pushed. Will an AI comprehend what a "tush-push" is? Does an AI even understand what a "tush" is? Will it factor in that the Chiefs stopped (debate aside) Josh Allen's comparable efforts? Appears like our AI believes they'll be using Jalen Hurts 600-pound squat and strong legs and lower body (Does our AI have a crush on Jalen Hurts?) time and again during this game.

Alright, I'm trying to figure out the possibility that the Eagles will do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the Super Bowl. First, I require to understand exactly what a "tush-push" is. From the articles, it seems like it's a strategy where the quarterback, in this case Jalen Hurts, utilizes his legs and lower body strength to press off protectors. It's compared to pushing a heavy box, so it's a physical maneuver that requires strength and strategy.

Article 3 dives into the physics of the "tush-push." It explains how Hurts uses his leg strength, having actually done a 600-pound squat, to perform the relocation. The post points out that the Eagles have a 90% success rate with this strategy, which is quite high. ... I also need to believe about the defensive techniques of the Chiefs. If the Chiefs know the Eagles' "tush-push" method, they may adjust their defense appropriately, which might either increase or reduce the variety of times the Eagles utilize it.

Considering that more than 5 looks like a substantial number but possible offered their self-confidence, I would approximate a possibility around 60-70% opportunity. This represents their preparation, confidence in the technique, and the probability that they'll utilize it a number of times, specifically if it's reliable early on.

Will Kendrick Lamar diss Donald Trump throughout the halftime show efficiency?

AI Final Prediction: 65% opportunity

While our AI may not be like us when it pertains to awareness, a soul, or any physical symptom, it certainly has viewpoints on Kendrick Lamar. It was quite uncertain, waffling back and forth, but in the end it believes Kendrick isn't going to back down from a battle.

From the posts, I see that Kendrick Lamar has a history of criticizing Trump. He's done this in his tunes, like "The Heart Part 4," and even made a declaration during a previous halftime program when Trump was present in 2018. That appears considerable due to the fact that it reveals he's done it before, so possibly he'll do it again. But wait, taking a look at more recent articles, it mentions that Lamar is moving far from political statements and focusing more on individual expression. That might indicate he's less likely to address Trump this time.

However, he's likewise involved in a fight with Drake, which might give him reasons to make some public declarations, even if they're not political. Another point is the legal issues surrounding his track "Not Like Us." There's a character assassination match from Drake, so maybe he's mindful about consisting of any controversial tunes in the efficiency. But given that he won the Grammys for that track, he might still want to perform it, even if it's uncertain.

Considering Trump is attending this Super Bowl, which is a prominent occasion, Lamar might feel forced to make a declaration. However, the NFL tends to avoid political statements throughout the halftime program, so there's a threat that such material may be limited or softened.

On the other hand, Lamar has a performance history of making strong moves on huge phases. He's the very first solo rap act to heading the halftime program, which may give him more creative liberty. Plus, his past behavior recommends he's not shy about revealing his viewpoints, even in public efficiencies.

But I also keep in mind reading that Lamar expressed fatigue about criticizing Trump, comparing it to beating a dead horse. That might indicate he's less inspired to raise Trump this time around, especially if he's focusing on his fight with Drake. In summary, weighing all factors-past habits, present shifts in focus, legal issues, and the event's context-the possibility appears to be moderately high, possibly around 65%.

Will Andy Reid consume a cheeseburger on screen after the very bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 25% chance

Lets be truthful, Andy Reid loves cheeseburgers. And who does not? Will the reality that our AI has never tasted the juicy deliciousness of a fresh burger taint its forecast? Looks like theres somewhat of an opportunity that if the chiefs taste triumph, Andy will taste Angus Beef.

From the articles, I see that Terry Bradshaw made a joke about Andy Reid eating a cheeseburger throughout a Super Bowl event. Bradshaw later said sorry for the joke, stating he didn't imply to cause offense which he in fact found it amusing himself. Reid seemed to take it in stride, which may suggest he's the type to laugh it off rather than getting upset.

Looking at the articles, it points out that Andy Reid is a food enthusiast and enjoys cheeseburgers. There's a post particularly about his love for food, which suggests that he's an individual who delights in eating, especially with his team. So, if there were plans to commemorate after the Super Bowl, it's possible he would partake in a cheeseburger, especially if the scenario is on screen for a celebration.

Will the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl be tails?

AI Final Prediction: 50% chance

"Tails never ever fails?" You can't deceive the machines !! Betters leading up to the superbowl have been forecasting the coin toss and 53% are predicting heads due to it being heads 3 of the last 4 super bowls. Potentially rewarding? Maybe. Statistically incongruent? Certainly. Luckily our AI can't be fooled and thinks anything can take place when that coin enters the air.

Okay, so I'm attempting to determine the probability that the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl will be tails. I understand that a coin toss is expected to be 50/50, but there's some historical data that may affect this prediction.

First, I review the short articles provided. They all point out the historic data of Super Bowl coin tosses. It seems like tails has actually shown up regularly than heads historically. Specifically, in 58 Super Bowls, tails has been the result 30 times, which is about 52%, while heads has actually been 28 times, which is about 48%. So, based simply on history, tails has a minor edge, but it's not a big difference.

However, I keep in mind that the result of a coin toss is generally considered random. The small historical edge for tails might be due to opportunity. But when making predictions, in some cases individuals weigh historical data even if it's not statistically considerable. So, I need to think about whether this historic bias must affect the likelihood.

After thinking of it, I choose that while the historic information reveals a minor preference for tails, it's not statistically substantial enough to move the likelihood away from 0.5. So, I'll go with 0.5 as the possibility, acknowledging that the small historical edge exists however doesn't bypass the fact that each toss is an independent 50/50 occasion.

Will the referees cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 1% opportunity

We get it, you believe the refs like Patrick Mahomes and are gon na assist him win. If I wasn't born and raised in Kansas City (I guarantee we didn't inject pro-Kansas City training information) I would probably think the same. BUT, its official now due to the fact that our AI says the opportunities are just 1% (hmmmm ... 1% is still type of high when it pertains to scams on a nationwide scale). Looks like the Chiefs will have to win fair and square!

AI Reasoning:

Okay, so I'm trying to figure out the likelihood that the referees will cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Hmm, that's a quite severe accusation. Let me break this down. First, I'm seeing a great deal of articles that talk about conspiracy theories suggesting referees are prejudiced towards the Chiefs. People are pointing to some questionable contact current games, raovatonline.org especially the AFC National championship. That does seem to trigger some uncertainty. I can see why fans might get annoyed when their team loses due to what they perceive as bad officiating.

But then I check out that the NFL Referees Association and iuridictum.pecina.cz the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, have both dismissed these claims as "outrageous" and "ludicrous." They say there's no proof of organized predisposition. That's a strong statement from individuals in charge. If they're rejecting it, it might indicate there's no real basis or they would have addressed it differently if there was some fact to it.

Looking at the articles, numerous sources like [1], [5], [6], [7], [8], and [9] all report that the officials are against these claims, and some even called them insulting. They also pointed out that analytical analysis does not show any pattern of favoritism towards the Chiefs. For example, Mike Pereira from FOX said data shows the Chiefs have been penalized more given that 2022. That's intriguing since if they were getting unique treatment, you might anticipate fewer charges, right?

...

So, putting all of it together, the likelihood that referees will cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl is most likely very low. Maybe not zero due to the fact that you can't rule out every possibility, however exceptionally not likely.

Summary

There you have it everyone, is it even worth watching the game still? I think I'll have to wait and see how the video game ends up before we unleash this upon the stock market. Fingers crossed for a great game! And hi, if it ends up our AI was wrong about whatever, a minimum of it can gain from this.