Dollar sags below 20-year peak as euro lifted by ECB bets

The dollar struggled to regain momentum on Tuesday after being beaten back from a two-decade high versus major peers by a reinvigorated euro.

The tables turned for the two currencies as traders began ramping up bets for a super-sized 75-basis-point interest rate increase by the European Central Bank while paring the odds for one by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

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"Recent days have arguably been dominated more by hawkish ECB-speak than Fedspeak," Alvin Tan, a Singapore-based strategist at Royal Bank of Canada, wrote in a client note.

"There is obviously an active debate among the ECB council members" over the size of hike to approve on Sept. 8, Tan said.

Traders see better than 50 per cent odds for a 75 bps move after a parade of ECB speakers at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole backed the case for a big hike.

By comparison, bets for a 75 bps increase by the Fed on Sept. 21, while higher at 70 per cent, have receded from as much as 75 per cent on Monday.

Monthly U.S. jobs figures due on Friday will be closely watched for further clues to the interest rate outlook.

The dollar index - which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, with the euro the most heavily weighted - stood at 108.72 in Asian trading, after dropping back from 109.48 overnight, a level not seen since September 2002.

The euro edged 0.06 per cent higher to $1.0003, adding to Monday's 0.32 per cent rally, its biggest in almost three weeks.


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